Napoli will be banking on the goals from a resurgent Victor Osimhen to get the result that will confirm their place in next season’s UEFA Champions League ahead of AC Milan and Juventus.
The Rossoneri and Partenopei both have 76 points, followed by the Old Lady on 75.
While Milan visit Atalanta, Napoli host Hellas Verona and Juve face Bologna at the Stadio Dall’Ara.
Napoli enter their final match of the Italian top-flight season with their destiny in their own hands.
Sitting fourth, a point ahead of rivals, Juventus in the shake-up for Champions League qualification, a Napoli win would secure their spot in Europe’s elite competition.
Consecutive wins against Spezia and Udinese by an aggregate score of nine goals to two were followed last weekend by the victory they needed to stay put in the top four.
Osimhen has hit top form in recent weeks after hitting the back of the net eight times and supplying one assist in his last 14 top-flight appearances for the Partenopei.
The 22-year-old has, however, failed to score in his last two Serie A outings against Udinese and Fiorentina, a goal drought he would not want extended to three matches.
While Osimhen and Napoli would be gunning for an outright victory today, the race could well go down to a head-to-head record, but there is also the possibility they could all finish together on 76 points, sparking a classifica avulsa (a mini-league of their results against each other).
If two teams finish on level points, their final placement is determined by:
– Head-to-head record
– Head-to-head goal difference
– Overall goal difference
– Goals scored
– Draw
Milan 76 points
If Milan beat Atalanta, they will not only secure a Champions League spot, but also leapfrog La Dea to take second place.
Milan have a superior head-to-head record with Napoli and with Juventus.
Napoli 76 points
If Napoli beat Verona, they will guarantee a top four finish.
Napoli have an inferior head-to-head record against Milan and an identical head-to-head record with Juventus.
When the H2H is equal, it goes to overall goal difference and Napoli are a long way out in front of Juve (+45 to +36).
Juventus 75 points
Juventus must beat Bologna and hope that either Milan or Napoli fail to pick up three points.
There is an alternative, as they could draw with Bologna, as long as both Milan and Napoli lose.
In that case, they would all be on 76 points, setting off a classifica avulsa – a mini-league made of their results against each other.
Head-to-head table
Should three teams reach 76 points, then this would be the table and the goal difference in head-to-head games:
Milan: 6 points (+2)
Napoli: 6 points (-1)
Juventus: 6 points (-1)
Milan would therefore be qualified for the Champions League, whilst the general goal difference between Juventus and Napoli would decide fourth place.